What is Backtesting? (Part II)

By Ahmad Hassam

The first was doing automated Backtesting. Automated Backtesting is easy. The second method of Backtesting is performed manually and visually by the trader. The trader would take the historical data and scroll back in time on a chart and manually apply the trading strategy as if it was in a real time environment.

The trader would advance the chart bar by bar in order to refrain from seeing price action subsequent to the trade at hand. This eliminates trading in hindsight that is detrimental to an objective backtest.

The major disadvantage of Backtesting as compared to automated testing is the significant potential for human error in executing simulated trades and recording performance results.

Additionally the normal range of human emotions and biases that often interfere with actual trading can be a detrimental factor in achieving objective backtest results. Furthermore, it takes a great deal of work and discipline to simulate trades manually over a large data set without straying from the strict rules of the trading strategy.

However, this provides valuable trading experience although simulated but still a valuable trading experience that no automated backtest could possibly provide. Backtesting manually can provide the trader with the real feel for actually trading the strategy.

Backtesting whether done manually or automatically can be one of the most important elements of building a solid trading strategy. Backtesting can save traders a great deal of time and money that might otherwise had been wasted on trading unprofitable strategies.

Autotrading is the latest fad especially in forex where the number of major currency pairs is only six and this makes programming autotrading easy. Any mechanical trading system can be backtested. This leads us to the important question of autotrading. These autotrading systems are popularly known as Expert Advisors or Forex Robots.

As compared to the forex market, only the US Stock Market has got more than 50,000 stocks listed with them. This makes programming a stock trading robot a bit complicated. However, during the past decade major breakthrough in computer programming has been made.

Big institutions like banks, corporations and hedge funds have always been taking benefit of these autotrading systems. Backtesting is one of the most important components of testing an autotrading system.

Backtesting and autotrading are two important components of implementing trading strategies that generally do not rely upon the trader's judgments or discretion. These types of strategies are primarily technical in nature, and they must necessarily have rules and criteria that are unambiguous.

Backtesting allows the trader to determine if a given strategy would have been profitable using past price data, which is an indication of how it might potentially perform in the future. In contrast, autotrading actually executes real trades automatically according to a pre - programmed set of instructions that sets trade entries, stop losses, and profit limits. - 31869

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Point and Figure Trading (Part II)

By Ahmad Hassam

The most common amount of reversal threshold is three boxes or three points. A new column is only added when a reversal in an existing column exceeds the reversal threshold.

The reversal amount in pips is 30 pips if the box size is set at 10 pips and the reversal amount is set at three boxes. So in case of a rising X column, price would need to turn back by at least 30 pips before a new O column would be added.

By only focusing on the pure price action, a point and figure chart reduces the unrelated noise in the price action. These two variables the box size and the reversal threshold make the point and figure chart so effective at representing only the most major market moves disregarding all minor fluctuations known as noise. The significance of these two variables, the box size and the reversal threshold should be clearly understood.

Since point and figure charts outline support and resistance so well, one of the best trading strategies in most common use with the point and figure charts is breakout trading. The point and figure charts are excellent indicators of both trend and support/resistance.

In bar and candlestick charts, a double top is a potential bearish reversal signal. Now there is a notable distinction between the bar and candlestick charts and the point and figure charts in the interpretation of double and triple tops and bottoms.

Are you familiar with the chart patterns like the double and triple tops and bottoms? They are taken as important reversal signals in the trend. However, a double top is a resistance point where traders should be looking for a bullish break to the upside on the point and figure charts. The same difference holds for the double bottoms as well as triple tops and bottoms.

Charts patterns like triangles are prevalent as well. Like the horizontal support and resistances levels on these charts, the main method of trading trendlines and pattern on the point and figure charts is through breakouts. Point and figure charts also have their own versions of diagonal trend lines which are drawn at 45 degrees.

The point and figure charts focus exclusively on the price action. Price action is the most important aspect of technical trading. Point and figure charts give a very clear view of the market movements.

Point and figure charts had originated in the'th century. Point and figure charts are still popular with traders today as an increasingly relevant analytical tool for forex traders. It is because of this clarity in viewing and interpreting the price movements that the point and figure charts have withstood the test of time.

Point and figure trading depends on the trendlines, support/resistance and breakouts. Point and figure charts excel at representing clear evidence of such important technical characteristics as trend, support/resistance and breakout without the extraneous elements to clutter the picture.

Other data that is readily available on the bar and candlestick charts like time, period opens/closes are generally excluded on the point and figure charts. This leaves only the uncluttered purity of price action. Some may characterize point and figure trading as based upon pure price action. - 31869

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Trading Multiple Timeframes

By Ahmad Hassam

Have you ever traded multiple timeframes? No, then let me explain what multiple timeframe trading is. In multiple timeframe trading, a trader first looks at a longer timeframe like a monthly or weekly chart to determine the overall direction of the trend. Multiple time frame trading is a trading method used extensively by forex traders. It involves the use of multiple timeframes.

If the trader finds a decisive long term trend on this timeframe, he/she then decides to drill down to a shorter timeframe like the daily or 4 hourly chart to look for dips or pullbacks in the trend.

First identify the main trend on the long term chart. A minor downward retracement would represent a potentially high probability entry to get in the trend at a reasonably good price in a strong long term uptrend. Finally the trader may drill down to an even shorter timeframe like the 30 minutes or 15 minutes charts to pinpoint and time the exact entry.

Learn to use multiple timeframes in your trading. How do you trade multiple timeframes? Suppose, you are interested in trading multiple timeframes! You identify the retracement in an uptrend on a 4 hourly chart. What you need to do is to wait for a resistance breakout on a 15 minute chart in the direction of the trend before entering into a long position.

What make multiple timeframe trading so powerful is that it puts the traders on the right side of the market while also identifying the highest probability entries available.

Have you heard of the triple screen trading method? One of the multiple timeframe trading strategies is known as Triple Screen. A triple screen resolves the contradiction between the technical indicators and timeframes. The first screen is the long term charts and strategic decisions on long term charts are made using the trend following indicators.

The second screen is used to make technical decisions about entries and exits using oscillators. The second screen is the intermediate charts. Suppose your favorite timeframe is the 4 hour chart. Call it your intermediate time frame. The third screen can be an intermediate chart or a short term chart. The third screen is used to place buy and sell orders.

Begin by looking at your favorite chart, the one that you use the most. Call it intermediate chart. Multiply its length by five to find the long term chart. Now use trend following indicators on the long term charts.

Staying out of the trade is a legitimate position. Use these trend following indicators in the long term charts to make your strategic decision to go long, short or stay out of the trade.

Return to the intermediate chart if the long term chart is bearish or bullish. Use oscillators like the Stochastics or RSI to look for entry or exit points in the direction of the long term trend. Set stops and profit targets before you switch to short term charts to fine tune entries and exits. To get at the short term divide the intermediate timeframe with 4-6. In our case, the intermediate timeframe is 4 hours, so the short term would be 1 hour charts.

Use it on your demo account to get familiar with it before you trade live with the triple screen method. Triple screen is a simple but ingenious multiple timeframe approach to forex trading. - 31869

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Trading With Point And Figure Charts (Part I)

By Ahmad Hassam

There are a number of charts that are used in trading. The most popular are the bar charts and candlestick charts. Do you know how to read Point and figure charts? Point and figure trading in many ways is similar to the support and resistance breakout trading on bar or candlestick charts. The main difference is the look and functionality of the price charts themselves!

Bar charts and candlestick charts show the high low open and close price for a given period. Point and figure charts represent price in a radically different manner from the more familiar bar and candlestick charts. Many forex charting platforms provide the option of point and figure charts.

Point and figure trading is based exclusively on price action. Point and figure charts are a pure price action play because these charts generally exclude all other elements like time, volume and open/close other than price.

Technical analysis is the study of price action. Technical analysis is used to predict or confirm an uptrend or downtrend or a consolidation in the market. Point and figure charts represent clear evidence of such important technical characteristics like trend, support/resistance and breakouts. Thus a point and figure chart focuses on the behavior of price action which is the most important factor from the technical analysis point of view.

If you look at the point and figure chart you will see many columns with Xs and Os marked in them. How do you figure out what does this means? A point and figure chart has got Xs and Os. A point and figure chart is constructed with a column of boxes alternately labeled with Xs and Os. An X column means that the price has risen in that column. Conversely, an O column means that the price has declined in that column.

So there is no concept of time in a point and figure chart. Only when price moves a significant amount regardless of time will an existing column grow or a new column is created. A new column is created going in the opposite direction when a reversal occurs on any column. So there is no time, volume, opens and close on point and figure charts.

How is a point and figure chart constructed? It depends on two variables. The first variable is the box size. This is the minimum amount that the price is supposed to move before a new box in the existing column is created. These two variables can alter the way the point and figure charts look and act.

X is equal to fixed price increase. Each X denotes a rising trend. For example, if a column of Xs has 10 boxes, price would need to move an additional amount equal to the preset box size before another X would be added to the top of the column.

You can use the charting software to do the actual drawing. However, you should understand the concept behind the point and figure chart. Suppose, you are using the point and figure chart. You set the box size on the point and figure chart to be equal to 10 pips on the point and figure charting software.

So 10 pips is box size or the minimum price increase! Now the price would have to move another 10 pips above each X box before another X could be added on top of that X. On the other hand, price would have to move 10 pips lower than the each box in O column to add another O box on the bottom of the column.

The second important variable is the reversal amount. How do you decide to add another column to the point and figure chart? It depends on the reversal amount. This is the amount of pips the price needs to reverse before a new column is created. - 31869

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Fibonacci and Pivot Point Trading (Part II)

By Ahmad Hassam

Beginning with the main Pivot Point that is calculated from the previous day's key price points, the resulting support and resistance are subsequently derived from the following calculations. How is the pivot levels calculated? Beginning with the main Pivot Point that is calculated from the previous day's key price points, the resulting support and resistance are subsequently derived from the following calculations:

R1 (Resistance 1) = 2PP-Yesterday's Low. R2 (Resistance 2) = PP + (R1-S1). R3 (Resistance 3) = Yesterday's High + 2(PP-Yesterday's Low).

Main Pivot Point PP = (Previous Low + Previous High + Previous Close)/3.

S3 (Support 3) = Yesterday's Low-2(Yesterday's High -PP). S2= PP- (R1-S1). S1 (Support 1) = 2PP - Yesterday's High.

After calculating these points they are plotted on the currency price chart. Trader's can calculate the current days pivot points using the above formulas based on the previous day's price data.

Breakouts or bounces may be traded with pivot points. Once these pivot levels are calculated and plotted, they are used in much the same way as Fibonacci Retracement. These pivot points are often also used as profit targets. Pivot points also indicate whether the market sentiment is bullish or bearish. Traders also use pivot points as reference levels to provide information as to whether the current price is relatively low or relatively high within its expected price range for the day.

R1, R2 and R3 similarly S1, S2 and S3 are used as references in pivot point trading. If the price is near the day's S2, for example, traders may look for long trading opportunities with the view that the price will reasonably move towards equilibrium around the main PP level.

You can also calculate the pivot levels for a week and for a month too. Instead of calculating the pivot points for the current day you can also calculate the above levels for 4 hour charts as well as 8 hour charts.

Both Fibonacci and Pivot Points are excellent technical tools that often encompass entire trading discipline in themselves. Just replace the day's highs, lows and the closing prices with the appropriate time frame highs, lows and closing prices when calculating the pivot points for the other time frames.

The pivot point can become the target low for the trading session in an extremely bullish market condition. This number represents the true value of a prior session. It is important to understand that especially in strong bull or bear market conditions, it can be used as an actual trading number in determining the high or the low of a given time period.

Traders will step in and buy the pullback until that pivot point is broken by prices trading below that level. A retracement back to the pivot will attract buyers if the market gaps higher above the pivot point in an uptrending market. The opposite is true for the pivot point will act as the target high for the session in an extremely bearish market condition.

Generally prices come back up to test the pivot point if a news-driven event causes the market to gap lower after traders take time interpreting the information and the news. Sellers will take action and start pressing the market lower again if the market fails to break that level and trade higher. Technically speaking, in a bearish market, the highs should be lower and the lows should be lower than in the preceding time frame. - 31869

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Trading Divergences

By Ahmad Hassam

Price oscillator divergences have long been acknowledged by technical traders as a solid indicator of potential price reversals. But it doesn't mean that divergences will always predict a reversal correctly. However, well defined divergences particularly on the long term charts can be surprisingly accurate in many instances.

Price divergence oscillators can be spotted with just two elements on the price charts. Catching a major price reversal at the correct time can be so profitable that only a few accurate divergence signals are needed to offset the inevitable false signals.

How do you determine a divergence? The first element is the price and the second element is an oscillator that runs either above or below a price level. This second element can be Stochastics, RSI, MACD or any similar oscillator.

Many traders use Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD- pronounced McDee) as their sole confirming indicator. The MACD is among the most popular technical indicator or an oscillator invented.

MACD is a multifaceted indicator that acts as a sign of trend momentum by representing the relationship between two moving averages. Some traders also take trading signals exclusively from MACD.

You must have used MACD in your trading. MACD is basically the difference between two moving averages. MACD can be traded by taking signals from the crossovers of two lines, crosses above and below the zero line. Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is another popular oscillator that provides a measure of price momentum.

RSI is an indicator that gives overbought and oversold signals in ranging markets. However, its usefulness like most other indicators tends to diminish during a trending market. RSI may also be used for divergence purposes. Stochastic indicator may also be used for divergence trading.

What is a divergence technically speaking? A divergence occurs when there is an imbalance between the price element and the oscillator element. Both begin to go separate ways and start telling opposite tales. This is the point when the oscillator is providing a strong hint that price may be losing its momentum and a change in price direction may therefore be impending.

A bearish divergence occurs when the price hits a higher high while the oscillator hits a lower high. A bearish divergence is a hint for an impending reversal back down.

A bearish divergence is an indication that price may soon turn and go back down as the higher high in the price may lose its momentum and begin falling.

On the other hand, a bullish divergence occurs when price hits a lower low while the oscillator hits a corresponding higher low. A bullish divergence hints at an impending reversal back up.

Divergences are often used as hints of possible turns and reversals. However, divergences are not frequently used as a full fledged self sufficient trading strategy. When used in conjunction with other trading tools, divergences can be a remarkably effective method for helping to time major market events. - 31869

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Fibonacci ... Pivot Point Trading (Part I)

By Ahmad Hassam

The use of Fibonacci retracement levels and pivot points are often considered by their adherents as complete, self contained trading strategies. Some traders are diehard fans of the Fibonacci and pivot point trading.

Don't confuse the two methods as one. I want to make it clear the Fibonacci Retracement and the Pivot Points are two different methods and must not be confused as a single trading method. Both produce mathematically derived support and resistance levels that traders may use either as indicators of possible retracement turns or as zones to watch for breakouts. The horizontal price levels that are generated through Fibonacci retracement levels and the pivot points are calculated using different methods and formulas.

One question that might bug your mind is that why these levels work in the market. What is the secret behind them? Why Fibonacci retracement levels and the pivot points work most of the time? What makes these tools work surprisingly well under diverse market conditions is the simple fact that many traders both small and large use Fibonacci retracement levels and pivot points in their trading.

Therefore the levels derived from these two tools become self fulfilling prophecy. This is why significant price action occurs around these levels due to the fact that many traders are watching and reacting to these price levels.

The most common Fibonacci retracement levels are 23.6%, 38.2% and 61.8%. These three Fibonacci retracement levels are most frequently followed by the traders. This phenomenon contributes to the Fibonacci retracement levels and pivot points frequent effectiveness and accuracy in describing the market movement.

As said above, Fibonacci retracement levels are very popular among the traders. There is a full fledge Fibonacci trading method. You will hear very often, the commentary on CNBC or Bloomberg that price is approaching the 38.2% retracement level and something important like a turn could occur at this level. This shows the popularity of Fibonacci retracement levels among the trading community.

Both methods have clear cut locations for the stop loss placement similar to most support/resistance trading methods. Fibonacci retracements can be traded either as a breakout opportunity or as a retracement bounce. Fibonacci levels can also be used as profit targets for existing open trades.

Pivot points are leading indictors of the price action in the market. Pivot points are derived mathematically from the previous day's data that includes the previous day's high. Low and close. The main pivot point (PP) is calculated by taking the average of the high, low and close of the previous days' price action.

From the PP, four other primary pivot points are calculated. Two are above the main PP and two are below the main PP. The levels above are R1 and R2 where R stands for resistance.

You can easily find a pivot point calculator online. Most of the charting software also can calculate the pivot points. The two levels below the main PP are the S1 and S2 where S stands for the Support. Often these pivot points are further extended to R3 and S3.

However, it is always good for the trader to know how these numbers are calculated. This will give the trader an understanding of how these numbers are calculated and what are the variables that are used to calculate them. - 31869

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